News & Updates for Tangipahoa Parish

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Hurricane Ida Update: Recovery Forecasts by Region

Here is some basic forecast information for the next few days broken down by region.
 
The main weather threats over the next few days will be rising rivers as well as potential for dangerous heat conditions due to lack of reliable air conditioning across the area. 
 
The forecasts below currently go through Thursday. Beyond Thursday, a drier air mass is currently expected to help bring some relief to the humidity which should provide a bit of relief from the higher heat index values.
 
Coastal SE LA (Terrebonne, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, Jefferson, Orleans):
  • Water levels along the immediate coast have been dropping substantially and should gradually drain from more interior areas beginning today. The water will not go down quickly as winds continue to have some southerly component
  • Frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph today should begin to ease tonight and will generally be in the 15 to 20 mph range tomorrow. Winds will continue to ease through Thursday.
  • Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 
  • Heat index values will peak around 100 degrees each afternoon
  • Regarding rainfall, the lingering band near the coast will continue to bring off and on moderate to heavy rainfall across some areas from Port Fourchon through Lower Plaquemines for the next couple hours. 
  • Once that band moves out, expect mostly scattered showers each day. Rainfall totals each day should be generally be less than a quarter inch, though a few storms could produce localized higher amounts
River Parishes and Baton Rouge Area (Assumption, St. James, St. John, Iberville, Ascension, West Baton Rouge, East Baton Rouge, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana, East Feliciana)
  • Most tide gauges are indicating water levels have either stopped rising or even begun slowly falling. Expect water levels to continue dropping slowly. Water will not go down quickly as winds are not in a favorable direction to push water out.
  • Frequent wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph today should begin to ease tonight and by tomorrow should be more in the 10 to 15 mph range. Winds will continue to ease through Thursday
  • Minor to moderate flooding is expected along the Amite River with Moderate flooding along the Tickfaw River as rain drains into the river systems. Forecasts for specific points can be accessed here: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=LIX
  • Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
  • Heat index values will peak in the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon
  • Expect mostly scattered showers each day. Rainfall totals each day should generally be less than a quarter inch, though a few storms could produce localized higher amounts
North Shore and eastern Florida Parishes (St. Helena, Tangipahoa, Washington, St. Tammany)
  • Tide gauges along the lakeshore have begun falling. Expect remaining storm surge flooding to gradually drain. The water will not go down quickly as winds are not in a favorable direction to push water out.
  • Frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph today should begin to ease tonight and by tomorrow should be more in the 10 to 15 mph range. Winds will continue to ease through Thursday
  • Moderate to major flooding is forecast along most of the north shore rivers. Most crests are forecast to occur on Tuesday, and you can access specific forecasts here:
    https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=LIX
  • Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
  • Heat index values will peak around 100 degrees Tuesday and Thursday, but will be in the 100 to 105 degree range Wednesday.
  • Expect mostly scattered showers each day. Rainfall totals each day should generally be less than a quarter inch, though a few storms could produce localized higher amounts.
Southwestern Mississippi (Wilkinson, Amite, Pike, Walthall)
  • Frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph today should begin to ease tonight and be more in the 10 to 15 mph range tomorrow. Winds will continue to ease through Thursday.
  • The Tangipahoa River near Osyka is forecast to experience minor flooding. The Bogue Chitto River is expected to experience major flooding. For more details regarding crest timing and for the latest forecasts, please refer to: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=LIX
  • Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
  • Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees each afternoon
  • Expect mostly scattered showers each day. Rainfall totals should generally be less than one quarter inch, though a few storms could produce locally higher amounts.
Coastal Mississippi (Pearl River, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson)
  • Water levels along the immediate coast have dropped significantly. Any water that was pushed farther inland should gradually drain. The water will not drain quickly as the wind direction continues to have an onshore component.
  • Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph today should begin to ease tonight and be in the 15 to 20 mph range by tomorrow. Winds will continue to ease through Thursday.
  • Moderate to major flooding is expected along several rivers in Pearl RIver Hancock and Harrison County with minor flooding currently forecast along rivers in Jackson County. For the latest crest forecasts and timing, please refer to: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=LIX
  • Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees
  • Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s Tuesday and Thursday, but will be near or just over 100 degrees Wednesday.
  • Expect mostly scattered showers each day. Additional rainfall totals will generally be less than one quarter inch each day, though a few storms could produce locally higher amounts.
If you have any questions or need additional information to help support recovery efforts, please do not hesitate to let us know. Again, we have somewhat reliable internet, so email is likely the best choice. Please send emails to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov so that all operational staff receive them. We can also occasionally get a phone call on our office cell phone (985-503-0237).
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